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评论来自 202083

Even if you only have a 25% crit chance (every 70 tank), this glyph effectively gives swipe a 100% chance to crit (against 4 mobs). With 33% crit (70++ gear) it swings with over 125% chance to crit, in addition to finally enhancing our AOE capabilities. Over 100% crit chance = insane rage generation, and even ignoring the threat bonus the crits give, it equates to the glyph I will be grabbing as soon as is remotely possible, and at any cost.

评论来自 131371

But the gist is that each swing yields an insane chance to crit when you add a mob.

for every swipe that lacks even one crit, there will likely be one that returns two or more.

I don't believe this is true. If you have a 30% crit chance, with more and more mobs, you'd actually be more likely to approach a total of 30% crits, and here's why:

Let's say you have a 30% crit chance. (For example purposes, we're going to use a greatly simplified attack table, consisting of just non-crit and crit, removing the possibility of misses/parries/dodges/etc.) Say you have two mobs. You swipe. The calculation goes like this:

Mob 1: 70% normal hit, 30% critical hit (/roll 100, if it's 1-70 normal, 71-100 crit)
Mob 2: 70% normal hit, 30% critical hit (/roll 100, if it's 1-70 normal, 71-100 crit)

If you have 5 mobs, and you swipe, you get this:

Mob 1: 70% normal hit, 30% critical hit (/roll 100, if it's 1-70 normal, 71-100 crit)
Mob 2: 70% normal hit, 30% critical hit (/roll 100, if it's 1-70 normal, 71-100 crit)
Mob 3: 70% normal hit, 30% critical hit (/roll 100, if it's 1-70 normal, 71-100 crit)
Mob 4: 70% normal hit, 30% critical hit (/roll 100, if it's 1-70 normal, 71-100 crit)
Mob 5: 70% normal hit, 30% critical hit (/roll 100, if it's 1-70 normal, 71-100 crit)

As you can see, each and every single mob has exactly a 30% chance go be crit, independent of how many mobs there are, or whether or not swipe critted on the other mobs. Over an infinite number of swipes against 5 mobs, you would see the crit percentage become ever closer to 30%, not 100%, because of the law of large numbers:

Given a random variable with a finite expected value, if its values are repeatedly sampled, as the number of these observations increases, their mean will tend to approach and stay close to the expected value.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Hope this clears things up for folks, and if my theory is incorrect, by all means correct it!

The quoted text at the top of this post expresses the waw of averages, which is not true:

The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event shall "even out" within a small sample. For example, "The roulette wheel has landed on red three consecutive times. The law of averages says it's due to land on black!" Of course, the wheel has no memory and its probabilities do not change according to past results.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

评论来自 204361

As of beta build 8885, this major glyph is learned at 75 skill. It requires:

1xMidnight Ink
1xLight Parchment

To make one Midnight Ink you need one Dusky Pigment. Dusky Pigment is made by milling five of any of the following herbs: Briarthorn, Bruiseweed, Stranglekelp, or Swiftthistle. In my tests, I've gotten 3-4 Dusky Pigment everytime I milled for it.

The Light Parchment is purchased from an Inscription Supplies npc.

I'm not 100% sure on this, but I think it goes yellow at 90 and green at 100 skill.

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重殴

重殴[Item Effect]需要德鲁伊

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