Datamining Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Rates - Bad Luck Protection Values Revealed

Posted 2024/02/22 at 9:53 AM by Squishei

Disclaimers

This data is not labeled. There's no "Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Rate" tag, but based on multiple factors, we assume that this is related to the Fyr'alath Bad Luck Protection (BLP). This could not be related, but we do think it is.

While we think we know what each set of data is for, we don't know how the graphs interact with each other (i.e. How exactly does the BLP from Lesser and Greater Embers combine?)

We don't know if there's an additional base drop percentage and what it is, if it exists.

Curve data is a set of points and we are assuming a linear interpolation, but we don't know for sure.

Data Gathering and Yesterday's HotfixBlizzard announcedFyr'alath the DreamrenderSorry if you did Fyrakk right on NA reset. This BLP buff seemed to only come at 5:45 PM PST.

The timing of the hotfix was shortly before the announcement.

10 out of 12 hotfixed plots were encrypted with the same encryption key that encrypted Fyr'alath the Dreamrender.

The remaining 2 hotfixed plots were added in Patch 10.1 and 1 of the plots seems to match community data on the Evoker legendary.

New Fyr'alath Legendary Drop ChanceLesser Ember of Fyr'alathGreater Ember of Fyr'alathTL;DR Drop Rate

The Drop Rate on LFR and Normal is low... very low.

On your 15th Heroic (or higher) Fyrakk kill after the Legendary was available (Week 3), you will guaranteed get Fyr'alath the Dreamrender.

On your 7th Mythic Fyrakk kill, you will guaranteed get Fyr'alath the Dreamrender.

It's unclear exactly how Lesser Embers interact with Greater Embers, but if you've been collecting they should be stacking up.

If you have killed Heroic Fyrakk every week since the Legendary was made available (Week 3), you should have a 100% drop chance on the week of March 5th, if you haven’t gotten the legendary by then.Fyrakk Kills - Greater Embers of Fyr'alathGreater Ember of Fyr'alathGreater Ember of Fyr'alath

# of Greater Embers
(Fyrakk Kills Since Week 3)

LFR

Normal

Heroic

Mythic

New

Old

New

Old

New

Old

New

Old

1.5%

1.5%

6.6%

~5.89%

~0.29%

~0.18%

2.25%

1.95%

8.2%

~6.78%

~0.17%

0.1%

~0.57%

~0.36%

2.4%

9.8%

~7.67%

~0.33%

0.2%

~0.86%

~0.55%

3.75%

2.85%

11.4%

~8.56%

~0.5%

0.3%

~1.14%

~0.73%

4.5%

3.3%

13%

~9.44%

~0.67%

0.4%

~1.43%

~0.91%

5.25%

3.75%

100%

~10.33%

~0.83%

0.5%

~1.71%

~1.09%

4.2%

~11.22%

0.6%

~1.27%

15%

4.65%

~12.11%

~1.44%

0.7%

~2.88%

~1.45%

18%

5.1%

13%

~1.88%

0.8%

3.75%

~1.64%

21%

5.55%

100%

~2.31%

0.9%

~4.62%

~1.82%

24%

2.75%

5.5%

27%

15%

~3.18%

~1.32%

~6.38%

~2.64%

30%

~15.54%

14 (March 5th)

~3.62%

~1.64%

7.25%

~3.29%

100%

~16.07%

~4.06%

~1.96%

~8.12%

~3.93%

~16.61%

4.5%

~2.29%

~4.57%

~17.14%

15%

10%

30%

20%

30%

Other Bosses - Lesser Embers of Fyr'alathLesser Ember of Fyr'alathLesser Ember of Fyr'alath

# of Lesser Embers

Bonus BLP?

New

Old

0.6%

0.3%

1.2%

0.6%

1.8%

0.9%

2.4%

1.2%

1.5%

3.6%

1.8%

4.2%

2.1%

4.8%

2.4%

5.4%

2.7%

12%

18%

24%

12%

30%

15%

100

60%

30%

/dump C_CurrencyInfo.GetCurrencyInfo(2784)Example

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Comment by ResucitadoGave up on it. It was something I was hugely looking forward to but it's completely irrelevant now.Comment by EmernoAfter seeing all these screenshots of 5+ axe drops we ran H Fyrakk again last night. With 6 eligible plate looters with # of previous H kills ranging from 2 to 10 we got zero axes. NEXT TIME FOR SURE...Comment by SpikeelGave up on it. It was something I was hugely looking forward to but it's completely irrelevant now.Comment by deffinitiveGave up on it. It was something I was hugely looking forward to but it's completely irrelevant now.Comment by dokeefe1986Ok so I'll never see it in LFR. Thanks. I'll just use my time on other things in game then. No big dealComment by BattleBrisketTwo things can be true at once:

This is great investigative work, and a lot of maths. Well done.

The fact that this effort was necessary is indicative of just how much the whole system sucks.

Comment by 2526346it got nerfed out of fun into balance now its a meme wep
par for the courseComment by GrokironhideGave up on it. It was something I was hugely looking forward to but it's completely irrelevant now.Comment by GrissuJust get rid of normal difficulty. I guess noone who is raiding mythic don't even touch normal since first week of the patch. Also they should bring back 10man raids (mythic), because Blizzard made this game to be seasonal, not an rpg anymore. People don't see to be worth doing 500 wipes on one boss if they can get the same relevant gear from m+. Raids should be more rewarding now, and I'm not talking only about gear here. Many guilds has problems with getting 20 ppl for progressing 2-3+ months since release of the raid tier. People quit, and come back on the new patch - repeat.Comment by rubenmsallesThank you for this data. Now ppl will be sure they are closer to get the weapon instead of throwing a dice every week.
It's curious how LFR has neegative chance.Comment by Nova5269I'd like to see how they actually datamined it instead of just being told they datamined it.

However, I got mine on my 2nd Normal kill on week 3. I should have went and bought a lotto ticket.Comment by Dasrono7 people who did it before hotfixComment by GrokironhideTwo things can be true at once:

This is great investigative work, and a lot of maths. Well done.
The fact that this effort was necessary is indicative of just how much the whole system sucks.

I thought we learned our lesson with Legion leggo drops, and by the end they actually had a good solution (rare currency, select the item you want). The fact that they made the same damn mistake again simply boggles the mind.Comment by RellyneGave up on it. It was something I was hugely looking forward to but it's completely irrelevant now.Comment by KurlsSo, according to this chart I had over a 50% chance to loot the axe based on my Heroic Fyrakk kills and lesser embers looted....yet I still did not get the quest item. This. Feels. Terrible. Please, for the love of god...never release a legendary that drops the same as this one. When alts are getting it before a main who has grinded since day 1, it feels terrible.Comment by Nova5269Just get rid of normal difficulty. I guess noone who is raiding mythic don't even touch normal since first week of the patch.Comment by RellyneDoes it make any sense to jump from lower % chances to a 100% in 7 or 15 kills? No.

Imagine if lesser embers do nothing other than making people still run full heroic runs after all this time? lol. Unfortunately only Blizzard knows what they did.

That's the beauty of RNG/%, nobody can prove anything if they don't have the numbers. We would need a large sample of characters/kills/drops and Blizzard would need to release the drop chance and how much each ember adds.

Also love the fact that the title says that values were revealed as if Blizzard finally disclosed them, but in the end its just "we guess that this is it..."

If you have killed Heroic Fyrakk every week since the start of the season, you should have a 100% drop chance on the week of March 5th, if you haven’t gotten the legendary by then.Comment by LostelfI'll just get this in a future expansion. Ridiculously inaccessible. Which would be fine, but the aquisition isn't even that interesting. Just RNG and then a massive goldsink.Comment by johntravolta342If these are actual drop rates this is pretty good, guaranteed on 15th heroic kill and 7th mythic kill is pretty fair and you can still gamble on lower difficulties.Comment by threesThis kills any motivation I have to try and continue farming the legendary. Save me the arguments of "it's supposed to be rare", WoW is now a seasonal game and these classes are balanced around the axe.

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